Jacob Moore — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Hey, good afternoon. This is Jacob Moore on for Steve, actually. Thank you for taking our questions. First, I was hoping you could provide us some more detail on the uptake of the new semiconductor products. I mean, for leading edge, of course, but also for the opportunity at nodes larger than 2 nm that I think you were alluding to. How has qualification and uptake progressed since your last update? How do you expect it to progress through the rest of the year? What milestones are you watching out for to determine different levels of success in that rollout?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. Hi, Jacob. This is Steve. Yeah. We're seeing quite a bit of uptake on our leading edge technologies, namely eVerest, eVoS, and NavX. What these technologies provide to fab operators are improved yield and improved throughput at the leading edge. Right now, that's where the battles are being fought, at the leading edge, and we're winning every battle that we're engaged in. We're in a very good spot. Once these customers see the improvements we can bring at the leading edge, they want to see those same improvements at some of the other nodes they operate at. We've also seen migration from one device type to other device types.
We think this is a good thing for the company ultimately, because it will allow us to basically ramp our new product revenue faster than we originally expected. We expect to see most of the new product revenue become meaningful, you know, starting late this year, but really into 2027 and 2028 as some of these node transitions occur.
Jacob Moore — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
I appreciate that. That's helpful. Second question from us, I actually wanted to focus on industrial and medical, which looks like it could represent either another leg of growth or help extend the growth profile beyond the next, call it, 12-18 months. I guess first, can you just speak to the split that you're seeing between market growth and share gains? Maybe you could touch on the status of potential M&A, rehash what you're targeting and how that landscape has changed since you first began the hunt to expand there.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Sure. Yeah. I think the good news regarding industrial and medical is the market has recovered. We just went through a, you know, painful two-year inventory correction period after the COVID supply chain issues. Based on what we see today, as far as our increased bookings, increased backlog, we think we're in very good shape from a market standpoint. We're seeing both the industrial and the medical markets pick up. Within those markets, test and measurement, aerospace and defense, you know, factory automation, robotics, and anything related to AI are leading the way. We think that the market share gain that we expect over the next year and a half is coming from new products. We have a number of significant design wins in our target segments.
They're gonna help us, you know, pull ahead of the competition, essentially. I think we're in very good shape in INM. As far as M&A goes, you know, I've said many times that our primary focus is to increase our breadth in industrial and medical. We think this is a pretty fragmented market where we can, in addition to our organic efforts, grow inorganically. This will be an objective for us. We think, I think some of the valuation mismatch we've had in past years, those mismatches are starting to close, and that will allow us, you know, to make an acquisition sometime in the not-too-distant future.
Jacob Moore — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Yes, it was on mute. Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. Steve, just a clarification. You talked about two capacity expansion and talked about incremental revenue. Can you just tell me what your revenue would be once you're done with these capacity expansion projects?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yes. you know, in my prepared remarks, I referred to the investments we're currently making in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Mexico, and that we expect to be at a run rate or a capacity revenue run rate of over $2.5 billion. this is our potential essentially after the—
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Right.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
—investments in the current factory network are done.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Sure.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
The second remark I made was on Thailand. We are gonna bring up Thailand earlier than we expected based on the strength we're seeing in data center and semiconductor. We think once Thailand is built out, that adds more than $1 billion of revenue-generating capacity. In total, you know, I think, we'll be in a position to ship in excess of $3.5 billion with our current factory network plus Thailand.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Gotcha. These capacity expansion projects, when would it materialize? Would that be in the next one or two quarter, or would you need more time for the expansion?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. For the current factory network, it's the expansion effort is underway, and we'll have that in place in the second half of this year. That's, you know, right around the corner. For Thailand, we'll start the investments late this year. We're pulling in some of the spending we had expected to make in 2027 into second half of 2026, so that we can start up production lines for data center as well as production lines for semiconductor.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Okay.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
We're gonna start that effort with large customers and with the higher volume products.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
The 43% margin target, is that inclusive of these capacity expansion projects?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
It is, yes. We comprehend the Thailand expansion in that number. Really that number is going to be driven by increasing new product mix. As we introduce new products, they typically carry better margins than the older products. You know, secondly, we think we get better from a manufacturing efficiency standpoint.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Sure. May I squeeze one more follow-up? That actually is as a follow-up to these capacity expansion projects. Just strategically, why not focus on executing on these expansion projects, executing on expanding TAM, especially on the data center? Why dilute your effort by having M&A on the side or in parallel?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, I think it's, you know, it's possible to do both. I think we spent the last three years basically streamlining our manufacturing capacity. You remember we broke ground on Thailand in 2023, so this has been in the works for a while. I think at the same time, it's very difficult to reach our growth targets in INM without acquisition. This is why we think in INM in particular, it makes sense to push forward organically and inorganically.
Mehdi Hosseini — Analyst, SIG
Got it. Thank you.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah.
Krish Sankar — Analyst, TD Cowen
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Steve, for first question is in the data centers. I understand there's like quarterly volatility in data centers revenue. If I take your first quarter and analyze it's almost like low 30% growth. You're guiding to mid 30%+. I'm just wondering, is the data center growth this year inhibited due to the fact that components are constrained, or is there something else going on in terms of the build-outs or market share or something else?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, I think that's a great question. As we look forward into 2026, the forecast, the unconstrained forecasts are quite strong, but our customers are dealing with downstream constraints. That's really tempering expectations for 2026. However, you know, I think we think that some of these constraints will be addressed, that would allow us to increase our forecast. I'd say in data center, there's definitely a bias to the upside in our 2026 forecast. Again, some of these constraints need to be knocked down, then we'll be able to take advantage of, you know, better short-term SAM. I think you may have noticed that our inventory is going up.
Much of that increase is us preparing to take advantage of these upsides that appear as our customers knock down these short-term constraints. You know, we are ready to respond if these constraints are addressed. Actually, there is some of that in the first quarter. We're able to outperform in data center in the first quarter, largely because some of the constraints were addressed by our customers.
Krish Sankar — Analyst, TD Cowen
Gotcha. Thanks for that, Steve. A similar question on the semiconductor side. When I look at your full year revenue guide, let's say mid 20% revenue growth, data center mid 30%, it looks like semis is probably undergrowing what your deposition and etch customers are talking about for WFE in the high 20%. I'm just curious, like, what's going on the semiconductor side. Are you just being conservative, or do you think that semi growth could be actually high 20s for you too?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. I think if you look over time, we had a good year last year. It was our second largest revenue year in our history. We came into 2026 pretty hot. As you look forward in 2026, actually, if you compare the second half of 2026 to the second half of 2025, our revenue in semiconductor will be up more than 30%. We're gonna be going very hot into 2027. We're, you know, we are very happy with our backlog in semiconductor, and that's one of the reasons we're gonna be opening Thailand faster than we expected.
Krish Sankar — Analyst, TD Cowen
Thanks a lot, Steve. That makes sense. Yeah.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Hi, thanks. Just wanted to go back to the data center computing growth that the moderation you're anticipating in Q2. Was there any pull-in activity into Q1? As you talk about growth accelerating again, is that something we should see as early as Q3, or do the constraints of your customers that they're facing, does that mean the growth pickup is more in Q4?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, Jim, I wouldn't characterize the Q1 outperformance as a pull-in. I think it was us taking advantage of an opportunity that was created when our customers were able to address their supply constraints downstream. I think that's an indicator of what's gonna happen, you know, in future quarters in 2026. Very difficult to predict, we know the demand mix is quite dynamic. We're trying to stay in a position where we can respond quickly to changes in demand from our customers. I think that again, there's upside potential in data center this year, and we're positioning to take advantage of that.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
When you talk about the factory priorities, limiting the INM output in Q1, I'm wondering if you could size that. Maybe elaborate, were these resources shifted to other verticals? Can you talk about that?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
We build the INM product in the same factories as we build the data center product. We had a surge in demand from data center, you know, in Q1, particularly in the last month of the quarter. Our factories pivoted to data center, and, unfortunately, we underperformed in industrial medical. You know, I'm giving my personal attention to make sure we catch up to that demand over the next two quarters. I think we'll solve this problem. The good news is we know what to build. You know, our backlog is robust now, so we're not taking a guess. We know exactly what the customers need, and we're going to build it.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Okay. You expect to catch up in Q2 there?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, it'll be Q2 and into Q3, and I think we'll be caught up.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Maybe one final question just for me is, are there semi device types in particular that you're gaining traction with the new products?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
You're talking about semiconductor, processes and so forth, Jim?
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Yeah.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
I think we've basically focused on the leading-edge processes, both in memory and in logic. We've been working with our customers very closely for the past three years. Also our customers are also involved in the equation. A lot of iteration going on. What it's leading to is the realization that these technologies provide real benefits at the leading edge. That's why we're excited about the potential to grow share, you know, based on these new technologies. We can grow share in both memory and in logic.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Are you willing to share any kind of revenue, expectation for this year from the new products collectively?
Paul Oldham — EVP and CFO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, we haven't really guided to that, Jim. We said we made our goals last year. We expected to increase that significantly this year. Based on the timing of when these nodes start to ramp, we said there'd be more significant growth in 2027.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Thank you.
Scott Graham — Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have a couple follow-ups on data centers, and maybe I'll just ask you all at the same time. Your sales in the first quarter were above your thinking, and it looks like that's gonna sort of, you know, stabilize, you know, kind of go a little bit the other way in the second quarter. I understand it's a customer thing, but I guess my question is, why wouldn't customers, I mean, data center demand is so dynamic right now, as you guys know, and it seems like these same customers face some challenges, yet were able to kind of, for lack of a better term, fix them in the first quarter. Why won't that happen in the second quarter?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, it's possible that happens. I think we do tend to guide conservatively. You know, we see what's in front of us. We take the forecast into account, and we typically will not include the upside in our forecast. Again, you know, we're trying to stay as flexible as we can so we can respond quickly to our customers' changing forecasts. You know, I think if there is an upside, we can take advantage of it.
Scott Graham — Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
I also know that your guidance for the quarter and the year in data centers was not including new customers. I'm wondering if you have a slack period in 2Q, does that enable some revenues harvested from new customers to backfill?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
I don't think so. The position we're in right now with the second wave customers is that we've completed a number of qualifications in the first quarter, and we're working on additional ones this quarter. Those second wave customers are now qualifying our factories to produce those products. That's typically a six to nine-month process. Right now, we expect the second wave customers to begin contributing meaningfully on the revenue line in 2027. There is some potential to pull some of that revenue into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Scott Graham — Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Understood. I guess my last question is, on the gross margin. I think your conference call last quarter, you talked about, "Hey, we think we're gonna hit a 40% gross margin this year," implying one of the quarters. Now it looks like you're gonna not only hit it in the first quarter, but now you're gonna hit it again the second quarter off of your guidance. I'm just wondering, is now a 41% gross margin, a point higher, doable for one of the two quarters in the second half?
Paul Oldham — EVP and CFO, Advanced Energy
This is Paul. I think you're right about that. Clearly we're a little bit ahead in Q1. We think we can build on that going forward, 'cause we are seeing traction on some of our new product mix. We're making progress in some of the factory optimization and other things. In general, as we have higher volumes, we should get some benefits. When we look forward, we see that we should be able to improve gross margins modestly each quarter, which could definitely mean that we could get to 41% by the end of the year.
Scott Graham — Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Thank you.
Elizabeth Sun — Analyst, Citi
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I guess my first question is on the 800-V transition. Steve, you mentioned in your prepared remarks you are working with multiple customers, working on some solutions. I was just wondering if you could double-click into what kind of solutions you are working on and what kind of customers you are working with, and the ramp of the timing of the ramp in 800-V. I think your competitor is talking about second half ramping as actually. Also, what will be the do's and don'ts for AE's demand when the transition happens?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, thanks, Elizabeth. Right now, we're sampling our solutions to key customers, and we have, you know, a number of different options. We have developed some 800 V-50 V modules that provide 4,000 W power, 6,000 W output power, and 8,000 W output power. We have different options for our customers. What differentiates us is very high efficiency, around 98% efficiency, high power density and high reliability. These are very important to customers. We've been told that we're leading from a technology standpoint. We've got a number of customers that are very interested in technology. We're sampling it. We expect the initial production revenue, most of that will start next year.
I think you'll see some small amount of revenue this year, but really it's starts in earnest in 2027 and becomes more meaningful in 2028. We think it's also good news for us because we think it increases our dollar content per rack. Generally speaking, these types of changes in technology are good for AE because we have a lot of the knowledge already in-house. We're I think very well positioned as some of these data centers transition to 800 V.
Elizabeth Sun — Analyst, Citi
Got it. The follow-up on the second wave of customers in data center. First question is just a clarification. If the demand pulls in into later half of this year, would that be incremental to the 35-ish% data center growth? How should we think of the size of the ramp or the size of the volume potential? If it pulls in, do you have enough capacity to support the ramp if that pulls in early?
Paul Oldham — EVP and CFO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. Elizabeth, this is Paul. Yeah. We don't have any forecast for our second wave customers in our guidance for 2026. Any of that we're able to pull in would be upside to the 35% growth. I think getting started on the, you know, winning some of the designs, and getting started on the actual manufacturing line qualification on that, I think is pretty exciting for us because we're seeing in general that pull in. We haven't quantified what that is. These aren't gonna be customers, you know, that are the same size as our, you know, kind of primary customers, but they could be meaningful, and there's several of them.
On balance, we see this as a pretty significant, you know, driver or supporter to growth in 2027 from, you know, from a data center as we essentially expand our penetration across a broader set of customers.
Elizabeth Sun — Analyst, Citi
Got it. Thanks, Paul. Thanks, Steve.
Quinn Fredrickson — Analyst, Baird
Thank you for the question. Just as we think about the data center outlook that you've outlined for 2Q and the back half. How should we think about supply constraints playing out from here? Are you anticipating those sequentially ease at all or stay the same in order to hit the guide that you've discussed?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Quinn, the supply constraints I've discussed so far, have been downstream supply constraints. They're really constraints our customers are dealing with. That's been the limiting factor, I think, in our forecast. So far, I think we're doing a pretty good job of managing our supply chain. That's not to say we won't run into issues, but so far nothing has really stopped us from shipping product. I'm hopeful that our customers can knock down some of the supply chain issues later this year, and we can increase our forecast.
Quinn Fredrickson — Analyst, Baird
That's helpful. Thank you. Second, just on the new products, curious if there's been any move forward in the timing of your dielectric etch wins converting to revenue at all? I know one of your larger customers was recently discussing a pull forward of NAND conversion spending. Is there a potential that could move up the timing of new equipment orders and your wins in dielectric etch at all?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. On dielectric etch, we haven't been too specific about wins, but I'm very confident that we'll be able to communicate wins later this year. You know, I think that what we're doing probably has little connection to the NAND upgrade exercise. Has a lot to do with next generation nodes in DRAM and logic.
Quinn Fredrickson — Analyst, Baird
Great. Thank you.
David Duley — Analyst, Steelhead Securities
Yes, thank you very much for taking my questions. I guess the first off, as far as the improvement in gross margins in the March quarter, that was done with the semi-revenue being down. I'm kind of curious if you could just elaborate on why the gross margin was better in Q1 given the semi mix was down. I guess a second question I have is regarding your new growth rate for semi in the second half. It was accelerating, I think, by 30%. Do you think that's more driven by your products actually starting to ramp up, you know, or is it more driven by just 2-nm spending is broadening out definitely beyond TSMC, as we've seen in the news lately with both Samsung and Intel kind of joining the party?
Paul Oldham — EVP and CFO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, good questions, Dave. I'll take the first one. Yeah, margins were up in Q1, and I think the thing that we saw that was pretty encouraging was that at the product level, the mix was better. We're seeing a little better traction on our new products, you know, kind of across the portfolio, which carry better margins. Even though, as a proportion, data center was higher and semi was a little bit lower, at the product level, we saw improvement. I think that's encouraging because as you know, we're counting on, you know, that being a driver of gross margins as we move towards our 43%.
Frankly, we think that can carry on through the year, and we should get some benefit given the, you know, what we see accelerated growth in semiconductor right now. We also saw a little better what I'll call other cost of sales. Just a variety of things were a little bit better, including some cost of quality, you know, made a little bit of progress on some of our ramp costs and efficiency. We had a very modest pickup from tariffs. On balance, we had a few things kind of go the right way, and that offset, you know, kind of more broadly our factory ramp costs and slightly higher material premiums. On balance, we feel good about the progress we're seeing.
We think that can carry forward, which is why we've, you know, essentially, you know, mulled up slightly our gross margin outlook for the year.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Maybe I'll make a few comments on the revenue increase. I think as you look at our forecast for second half and the growth that we're forecasting, it's primarily due to growth in our flagship product revenue. When I say flagship, I mean the older products that have been designed in for a while. We're also being helped by wins in the system power space with semiconductor testers as well as with wafer fab equipment. The new products become significant starting in Q4 this year, but they become a bigger factor in 2027.
David Duley — Analyst, Steelhead Securities
Maybe you could comment a little bit on what your customers are saying about, you know, growth in 2027 and, you know, if the 2-nm kind of ramp is spilling over into 2027? I would think that your semi business would perhaps grow faster in 2027 than it grows in 2026.
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. Yeah. Our customers in semiconductor are very enthusiastic about 2027. I think one of the key factors is, at the leading edge, there's a lot of new clean room space coming online in 2027, and so they'll have a place to put all this new equipment. You know, again, if you combine that with new product revenue becoming more significant in 2027 due to the node transitions, I think it's gonna be a very good year for Advanced Energy in the semiconductor space.
David Duley — Analyst, Steelhead Securities
Okay. Final thing for me, you mentioned it twice in your prepared remarks and the Q&A here, is the systems business for, I think you said test, semiconductor testers and other wafer fab equipment. Can you just kind of help me understand how that's different than, you know, the boxes you provide for, you know, your big OEM customers at this point?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Yeah. Yeah. Let me just explain that. We divide it broadly into two categories. Plasma power is basically RF or pulsed DC power we provide that's injected into a plasma chamber, and that's been our traditional business. We, when we talk about System power, we're talking about the, you know, the power that the machine uses to operate. You know, think of it as between the wall and the machine. That's System power. That could also be relatively sophisticated because these machines are very complex, and we've made a, you know, push into this area over the last few years, and it's starting to pay off for us.
David Duley — Analyst, Steelhead Securities
How big a TAM do you think this is? Excuse me.
Edwin Mok — Senior VP of Strategic Marketing and Investor Relations, Advanced Energy
Dave, what we have said is that in aggregate, all of our plasma power is over a $1 billion market opportunity for us. That's what we disclosed in 2012 analyst event, and that's, you know, what we have said.
David Duley — Analyst, Steelhead Securities
Okay. Thank you.
Brian Chin — Analyst, Stifel
Hi there. Good afternoon. Maybe two questions from us. First, on the data center. Definitely hear that the quarterly revenue progression in DC is more owed to timing and variability. Just thinking on a full year-over-year perspective, increasing power content per rack wasn't a major tailwind last year. It should still be a tailwind, but would you say it might be less pronounced this year relative to last year?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
I don't think so because we continue to develop solutions for increased power. It's just a continuous exercise for us. I would say this is one of our advantages because the basic challenge is to continue to increase the power density at the same time, don't sacrifice reliability or efficiency. Basically, you have the same amount of space, but you have to produce a lot more power. To do that reliably and efficiently is a challenge from a design standpoint. That's one reason we've been able to be successful, you know, with our hyperscale customers, and we've been successful now with the second wave customers because we have that combination of technical features as well as good speed of development.
Finally, we've got the factory network to produce these boxes in high volume.
Brian Chin — Analyst, Stifel
Okay. Thanks, Steve. Then second question on semicap. And answer this however you're comfortable addressing it. In terms of that second half guide that you're providing, do you think you're shipping in sync with customers or perhaps a little ahead given that multi-year visibility and outlook? Then kind of second part of that is from a supply chain perspective, given the duration of visibility, you know, certainly well into next year, has that given you a lot of confidence to go out and maybe be really proactive sourcing some of those components, maybe call it chips, other materials that can be issues as you get through, like, a multi-quarter growth period?
Steve Kelley — President and CEO, Advanced Energy
Okay, Brian. On the, you know, customer demand being in sync with their requirements or, you know, are they putting in inventory, essentially, our view is that we're more or less in sync. You know, I think what we've seen is across the customer set, you know, that we've received increased orders, and that's because of leading edge primarily. We know the end market demand is there. I think the constraint right now in semiconductor is really clean room space. If some of these clean rooms come on faster than expected, then that will increase demand. If they come on slower than expected, then we may create a little bit of inventory, but I don't think it'll be much.
As far as supply chain goes, you know, it's a hot topic, right? Especially after COVID when we had to deal with so many issues. So we have been leaning in to inventory so that we are able to have some reserve in case things get tight or lead times go out. So I think we spend quite a bit of time on the supply chain topic. You know, one of the things we did during the COVID supply chain shortages was to develop more second sources, which we've done, so that gives us more flexibility. Where we couldn't develop a second source, then we put in extra inventory.
You know, I think we're going into this with our eyes wide open, and I'm pretty aggressive on the inventory front.
Brian Chin — Analyst, Stifel
Thanks. Appreciate it.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Hi, Paul, you may have given this. I apologize if you did, but any color on OpEx as we look out over the balance of the year beyond Q2? Anything we should be thinking about?
Paul Oldham — EVP and CFO, Advanced Energy
Yeah, Jim, obviously, OpEx was down a little bit in the first quarter. We've done a good job controlling spending there. In the second quarter, we do have our annual salary or merit increases. We've guided second quarter up $5 million-$7 million. We continue to expect that that run rate will increase, you know, a little bit every quarter, kind of what we said before as we invest in these new programs, primarily in engineering, as well as some variable costs with higher volumes. We would expect operating expenses to be in this $460 million range for the year and kind of graduating up, you know, kind of sequentially to, you know, so to basically at that level.
Jim Ricchiuti — Analyst, Needham & Company
Got it. Okay. Thanks a lot.