Our investment thesis: robust and solid, continuing our track record of industry-leading results. This load is incremental to our plan and part of the 9 GW pipeline that we have been working to locate in our service area. We continue to see positive momentum with data centers within the 9 GW pipeline and expect additional progress once we finalize the data center tariff. In addition to load growth from data centers, Michigan is on the move.
As I shared in Q1, we continue to see strong housing starts, alterations, as well as upgrades and relocations, all signs of positive growth among residential and commercial customers. What we know to be true is that growing demand, like I shared on the previous slide, enables longer-term cost savings for our customers. These de-risk $4.5 billion of capital, the renewable portion of the five-year plan at the utility. Again, this business makes up approximately 5% of the earnings mix, so it is small, with the majority of the growth at Dearborn Industrial Generation, or DIG, with energy and capacity sales.
As we move forward, we'll continue to evaluate the need for capital across the business, as we always do. The ability and willingness to shift capital to utility investments that benefit our customers. It is worth noting that the weather outlook in our service territory remains quite good for the balance of the summer. Given our strong year-to-date performance, particularly in the second quarter, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our full-year financial objectives to the benefit of all stakeholders.
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Weather (normal-weather assumption) | Remainder of 2025 | Plan for normal weather ($0.11 per share positive variance) |
| Regulatory / rate relief | Remainder of 2025 | Electric rate order benefits plus expected constructive gas rate case outcome ($0.18 per share positive variance) |
| O&M expense (utility) | Remainder of 2025 | Lower O&M via CE Way cost performance ($0.01 per share positive variance) |
| Catch-all (one-time countermeasures / sales / financing) | Remainder of 2025 | Absence of 2024 one-time countermeasures plus conservative sales and parent financing assumptions ($0.14-$0.20 per share negative variance) |
| Tax credit transfers | Five-year plan | Well positioned to execute approximately $700 million of tax credit transfers (n/a) |
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net income / EPS (first half) | $518 million / $1.73 per share, favorable versus first half 2024 | Absence of prior-year unfavorable weather and continued constructive regulatory outcomes. |
| Weather-related variance (year-to-date) | $0.32 per share positive | Favorable Q2 weather largely in June plus a relatively normal Q1 winter. |
| Rate relief and investment-related expenses (year-to-date) | $0.09 per share positive | Constructive electric rate order earlier in the year and the gas rate case settlement in the second half of 2024. |
| Cost trends (year-to-date) | $0.04 per share negative | Increased vegetation management in accordance with the electric reliability roadmap. |
| Catch-all category (year-to-date) | $0.27 per share negative | Planned outage of the Dearborn Industrial Generation facility, back-end-weighted NorthStar tax benefits, financing activity, and slightly lower non-weather sales volumes. |
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data center / large-load pipeline | 9 GW pipeline being worked | Agreement for up to 1 GW data center signed (incremental); 9 GW pipeline continues to fill with over 200 non-data-center customers; conversions expected after the data center tariff | Advancing |
| Integrated Resource Plan opportunity | n/a | Early estimate of an additional $5 billion of opportunity outside the five-year plan, primarily capacity (storage and gas); described as an early number that could be higher | Emerging upside |
| One Big Beautiful Bill Act impact | n/a | Renewable projects positioned for full PTC/ITC and transferability through 2029, de-risking $4.5 billion of utility capital; NorthStar renewables safe-harbored through 2027 with some 2028 options | De-risked |
| Capital backlog | n/a | Greater than $25 billion of investment opportunity above and beyond the five-year plan | Large / growing |
| Affordability | n/a | Customer utility bill roughly 3% of total expenses (share of wallet), down 150 basis points from a decade ago, with bills below the national average | Improving |