Whether it's our long capital runway, Michigan's top-tier regulatory jurisdiction, our ability to keep bills affordable for customers, or the strong economic growth across the state, this model works, and it works consistently. It drives a premium total shareholder return, 6%-8% adjusted EPS growth with annual compounding paired with approximately 3% dividend yield. On the graph to the left, what stands out is that consistent record of support, constructive outcomes we've seen across our electric rate case filings over the last several years. That includes everything from critical capital investments across the grid to advanced tree trimming on a five year cycle.
Our track record of consistent and constructive rate case outcomes is strong. We've identified that for every 1 GW of new large load, we could see capital opportunity of $2 billion-$5 billion. Episodic cost savings, load growth, and energy waste reduction as further examples. In our bill growth, you see on the left side of the slide, among the lowest in the country.
Michigan continues to make headlines and top rankings nationwide as we see new or expanding load materialize in the state and supporting 2%-3% annual sales growth. This growth allows us to spread fixed costs over a larger customer base and improve affordability for all customers. Our service territory is growing with manufacturing and industrial processing, bringing with it large investments, jobs, supply chains, and commercial and residential growth. Before moving on, I'll just note that our track record of delivering on our financial objectives over the last two decades, irrespective of the circumstances, speaks for itself.
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Weather (normal-weather assumption) | Remaining nine months of 2026 | Plan for normal weather ($0.23 per share negative variance) |
| Rate relief / regulatory | Remaining nine months of 2026 | Assumes constructive gas rate case outcome plus electric order benefits ($0.24 per share positive variance) |
| O&M expense (utility) | Remaining nine months of 2026 | Lower O&M via CE Way and cost reduction initiatives ($0.04 per share positive variance) |
| NorthStar plus parent financing | Remaining nine months of 2026 | Solid NorthStar performance offset by parent financing/equity dilution ($0.06 to $0.13 per share positive variance) |
| Equity issuance | Full-year 2026 | Plan to issue approximately $700 million aggregate; ~$495 million in forwards executed, ~$142 million settled in Q1 (On plan) |
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.13 per share in Q1 2026, favorable versus Q1 2025 | NorthStar outperforming a soft prior-year comp plus higher rate relief net investments at the utility, partially offset by the March ice storm. |
| Weather/heating degree days | $0.01 per share favorable | Relatively normal heating degree days as a warm March and February offset a typically cold January. |
| Storm/cost category | $0.05 per share negative | An uptick in storm activity including a sizable March ice storm larger than last year's, with some positive offsets from the electric supply business. |
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data center / large-load pipeline | Roughly 9 GW pipeline; ~100 MW signed last year | Pipeline larger than 9 GW; ~110 MW signed year-to-date; advanced negotiations with at least two hyperscalers, finalizing one contract | Growing |
| Large-load CapEx sensitivity | n/a | Every 1 GW of new large load could create $2 billion-$5 billion of incremental capital opportunity, beyond the current plan | Incremental upside |
| Equity financing strategy | ~$700 million planned for 2026 | ~$700 million for 2026; averaging ~$750 million per year thereafter, more front-end loaded; equity forwards used to de-risk | Front-end weighted |
| Affordability | n/a | Michigan electric bills 14th lowest in the nation, below national and Midwest averages, while investing over $24 billion over the five-year plan | Stable / focus area |