What Management Said

Read the full Q4 2025 transcript ↗

During today's call, we will discuss ITW's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results and provide guidance for full year 2026. In the fourth quarter, we outperformed our underlying end markets with revenue growth of more than 4% and delivered a 7% increase in GAAP EPS to $2.72. Through disciplined operational execution, we expanded operating income and margins to record levels. Starting with the top line, organic growth of 1.3% marked our best quarterly performance of the year.

Overall, Q4 demand improved, as reflected in higher than normal sequential improvement of 4% from Q3. In addition to market outperformance, the ITW team continued to execute at a high level, resulting in operating income of $1.1 billion, an increase of 5%. Segment margins were 27.7%, up 120 basis points, with 140 basis point contribution from Enterprise Initiatives. Throughout the year, we remained laser-focused on building above-market organic growth, fueled by Customer-Backed Innovation, or CBI, into a defining ITW strength.

We are pleased to have achieved 2.4% CBI-fueled revenue growth in 2025, a 40 basis point improvement, as we track toward our 2030 goal of 3%+. Furthermore, I'm encouraged by a key leading indicator of CBI contribution, our patent filings, which increased by 9% last year, following an 18% increase in 2024. Per our usual approach, our organic growth projection of 1%-3% reflects current demand levels adjusted for seasonality. Our EPS guidance midpoint of $11.20 represents 7% growth, and we expect operating margin expansion of about 100 basis points, powered by Enterprise Initiatives.

What went well
  • ITW delivered a solid finish to 2025 with fourth quarter revenue growth of more than 4% and a 7% increase in GAAP EPS to $2.72, expanding operating income and margins to record levels.
  • Organic growth of 1.3% was the best quarterly performance of the year, with higher-than-normal sequential improvement of 4% from Q3 versus a historical sequential average of 2%.
  • Operating income reached $1.1 billion, up 5%, and segment margins were 27.7%, up 120 basis points, with a 140 basis point contribution from Enterprise Initiatives and incremental margins above 50%.
  • All seven segments expanded operating margins, with Enterprise Initiatives contributing between 80 and 210 basis points per segment, and Welding margin reaching a record 33.3%, up 210 basis points.
  • Customer-Backed Innovation (CBI) reached a 2.4% revenue contribution in 2025, a 40 basis point improvement toward the 2030 goal of 3%-plus, supported by patent filings up 9% after an 18% increase in 2024.
  • The company saw a positive pickup in semiconductor and electronics activity, with semi-related businesses up mid-single digits, and increased its dividend for the 62nd consecutive year while returning $3.3 billion to shareholders.
What went wrong
  • Construction Products organic revenue declined 4%, with North America down 4% (residential renovation down 5%) and Europe down 5%, reflecting interest-rate-sensitive end markets.
  • Europe declined 2% in the quarter and is not expected to improve much in 2026.
  • Food Equipment was mixed, with equipment flat and North America restaurants down high single digits, offset by institutional strength and retail up nearly 5%.
  • The semiconductor recovery remains uncertain, having shown an uptick in Q2, a decline in Q3, and a recovery in Q4, so its sustainability is not yet certain.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
Total revenue growthFY20262%-4% (New)
Organic growthFY20261%-3% (New)
GAAP EPSFY2026$11.00-$11.40 (7% growth at $11.20 midpoint) (New)
Operating marginFY202626.5%-27.5% (about 100 bps improvement, 100 bps from Enterprise Initiatives) (New)
Incremental marginsFY2026Mid- to high 40s (Higher)
Q1 EPS contributionQ1 FY2026Roughly 23% of full-year total; first half/second half split approximately 47%/53% (New)

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
Total revenue +4.1% Organic growth of 1.3%, foreign currency translation added 2.5%, and acquisitions contributed 0.3%.
GAAP EPS +7% to $2.72 Operating income growth and record margins driven by Enterprise Initiatives.
Operating margin + to Q4 record 26.5%; segment margin 27.7% (+120 bps) Enterprise Initiatives contributed 140 bps; incremental margins above 50%.
Automotive OEM revenue +6% (organic +2%) China grew 5% in Q4 and 12% for the full year on EV penetration; North America up 2%, Europe down 1%.
Polymers and Fluids organic revenue +5% New product launches in automotive aftermarket (car care, Rain-X wiper blades), China EV-related Polymers up double digits, and biopharma Reagents up more than 20%.
China revenue +9% full year Auto OEM, Test and Measurement (high single digits), and Welding (mid-teens) growth.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
Customer-Backed Innovation (CBI)2.0% contribution in 20242.4% contribution in 2025, +40 bps; expected to improve further in 2026; added as a metric in long-term incentive plansAccelerating
Semiconductor / Test and Measurement recoveryCapEx freeze and China shipment weakness mid-2025Bookings, orders, and backlog improving; semi is 15% of T&M and 3% of ITW; recovery looks promising but earlyImproving
Product Line Simplification (PLS)Higher headwind in 2025Reduced to maintenance level of 30-50 bps in 2026; viewed as portfolio pruning that improves incremental marginsLower headwind
Price/costTariff-related increases normalized after 2024 waveSlightly favorable for full-year 2026 but not a major margin driverStable
M&A—Opportunistic and selective; completed one bolt-on in semi-manufacturing space in Q4; valuations seen as challengingSelective
Demand environmentYears of headwindBroad-based sequential improvement Q3-to-Q4; described as a little more than green shoots with good momentum into 2026Improving

Q&A Summary

Is the improvement in Test and Measurement and semiconductor a more definitive turn, and are CapEx businesses unlocking?
O'Herlihy said T&M had a solid quarter after a challenging year that included a roughly two-quarter CapEx freeze tied to China shipments; semi is about 15% of T&M and the recovery appears sustainable based on current visibility, though there were prior head fakes. Larsen added that general industrial orders, equipment revenue in Welding, sales, orders, and backlog are all improving, providing momentum into 2026.
How should we think about margin expansion across segments in 2026 given metals inflation?
Larsen said bottoms-up planning shows every segment improving operating margins in 2026, driven mostly by about 100 bps from Enterprise Initiatives plus positive operating leverage at mid- to high-40s incrementals. Segments above 30% margin may see less improvement than auto and T&M, which have further to go; improved CBI is another margin driver since new products come in at higher margins.
What is the price/cost outlook and how much of COGS is resin?
Larsen said price/cost has normalized after the 2024 tariff wave and is slightly favorable for 2026 but not a big margin driver; tariff efforts centered on supply chain mitigation. The resin portion of COGS is much smaller than the 10%-15% of roughly a decade ago, with only a small specialty products portion indexed to resin and no auto adjustments on the way up or down.
What does it take to reach the 3%-plus CBI goal, and does it require more spending?
O'Herlihy said it is not about spending more but about higher leadership time and focus, mirroring the 80/20 Front-to-Back approach; innovation contribution has more than doubled over five years, supported by a codified innovation framework launched in late 2024 and rising patent filings. Larsen added CBI yield has been added to long-term incentive plans.
Why is the 2026 incremental margin guidance of mid- to high 40s above the 35%-40% long-term target, and is it structurally sustainable?
Larsen said over a decade of Enterprise Initiatives and portfolio work has improved variable, gross, and overall margin quality, and accelerating new-product contribution comes in at higher margins, all while fully funding about $800 million of internal investments, so the higher incrementals are sustainable. O'Herlihy attributed it to many years of PLS portfolio pruning plus continuous improvement of the business model.
What drove the stronger-than-normal 4% sequential revenue growth from Q3 to Q4?
Larsen said it was broad-based with nothing standing out, suggesting a little market tailwind after years of headwind, and more pronounced in higher-CBI segments such as Polymers and Fluids (automotive aftermarket, biopharma Fluids, China EV Polymers) and Test and Measurement, where the semi pickup showed up in both orders and actual sales.

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Q4 2025 call
Reported 2026-02-03 · figures from the Illinois Tool Works Inc Q4 2025 earnings call.

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