I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the investor relations section of the key.com website. This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Earnings per share were $0.35 even while we added $36 million to our loan loss reserves and elected to pre-fund our charitable foundation this quarter.

Our pre-provision net revenue increased by $44 million sequentially, marking the fifth straight quarter that our PP&R has increased. With respect to fees, which grew 10% from a year ago, our priority fee-based businesses all continue to perform very well. We raised over $30 billion of capital for our clients in the quarter, retaining 22% on our balance sheet. Additionally, sales production in our mass affluence segment was a record in the first half of the year.

Finally, commercial mortgage servicing continued its strong performance as named special servicing balances reached record levels and active special servicing balances remained near record levels. As Clark will discuss in more depth shortly, we are increasing our net interest income and loan growth guidance. Based on the rebound in client activity, we continue to feel good about our ability to deliver 5% or better fee growth this year. Concurrently, we remain committed to holding expense growth in the low to mid-single-digit range, even while investing meaningfully in our front-line bankers and increasing our tech spend by nearly $100 million this year.

What went well
  • Q2 2025 earnings were $0.35 per share even after adding $36 million to loan loss reserves and pre-funding the charitable foundation, with revenue up 21% year-over-year.
  • Pre-provision net revenue increased $44 million sequentially, the fifth straight quarter of PPNR growth, with aggregate PPNR up more than 60% since Q1 2024.
  • The company achieved its full-year plan to grow commercial loans by about $3 billion by June 30, with C&I loans up $1.7 billion spot and broad-based growth across industries and regions.
  • Fees grew 10% year-over-year, with investment banking having its second-best first half in history ($353 million) and investment banking and debt placement fees up 41% year-over-year to $178 million.
  • Net interest margin increased 8 basis points to 2.66%, deposit costs were managed below 2%, and cumulative down deposit beta reached the mid-50% range, matching the terminal beta from the rising-rate cycle.
  • Credit metrics improved with net charge-offs, criticized loans, and delinquencies all declining, overall credit migration improving for the sixth consecutive quarter with commercial upgrades exceeding downgrades.
What went wrong
  • EPS was held to $0.35 partly by a $36 million reserve build (roughly half from loan growth/mix and the remainder from deterioration in the Moody's macroeconomic scenario) and a $10 million charitable foundation contribution.
  • The company carried roughly $4 billion-$5 billion more cash and short-term liquidity than needed, creating a 4-5 basis point drag on NIM (de minimis impact to NII).
  • Some investment banking activity was pulled forward into the end of Q2 as clients accelerated transactions, drawing from the Q3 pipeline.
  • C&I line utilization ticked up only about 50 basis points to 32%, less than expected, as clients did not aggressively forward-buy tariffs as management had anticipated.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
Net interest income growthFY202520%-22% YoY (raised)
Q4 NII exit rateQ4 202511%+ (raised)
Fee growthFY20255% or better (reiterated)
Expense growthFY2025low to mid-single-digit range (reiterated)
Q3 investment banking feesQ3 2025could look similar to Q2 levels (new)
Net interest marginend of 20263.0% (reaffirmed at current course and speed)
Ending loan growthFY2025up 2% (raised guidance)
Share repurchasesH2 2025modest in Q3, stepping up later in Q4 (resuming)

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
Earnings per share $0.35 Strong PPNR offset by a $36 million reserve build and a $10 million charitable contribution
Revenue up 21% NII tailwinds and broad-based fee growth
Taxable-equivalent net interest income up 28% (up 4% sequentially) Deposit beta management, fixed-rate asset repricing, swap maturities, commercial loan growth, and an extra day
Non-interest income up 10% to $690 million All priority fee-based businesses growing mid-single digits or better
Investment banking and debt placement fees up 41% to $178 million Syndication, commercial real estate, and equity issuance activity
Commercial mortgage servicing fees up ~15% Elevated special servicing balances (~$11 billion active, up 59%)
Trust and investment services income up 5% Despite April volatility and a one-month booking lag; AUM record $64 billion
Tangible book value per share up 27% (up 3% sequentially) Earnings generation
Net charge-offs $102 million (39 bps, down 7% sequentially) Stable to improving credit

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
Net interest margin expansionaround 2.58% prior quarter (up 8 bps to 2.66%)2.66%Improving
Commercial loan growthfull-year ~$3 billion planfull-year plan already achieved by June 30, backlogs buildingAhead of plan
Deposit beta / funding costsrising-rate terminal betacumulative down beta mid-50s, deposit costs below 2%Improving
Capital returnpausedmarked CET1 at 10% (high end of target); modest Q3 buybacks stepping up in Q4Resuming
Banker hiring10% frontline growth targeton track, front-ended; new Chicago/Southern California teams already producingProgressing
Reserve / macro uncertaintyQ1 qualitative adjustment for heightened uncertaintypartially reversed as uncertainty now reflected in Moody's scenario; $36 million net buildModerating

Q&A Summary

What are you hearing from clients on sentiment and borrowing, and how does it translate into the higher NII and loan outlook?
Gorman said clients are cautiously optimistic with healthy consumer (avg FICO ~767) and commercial balance sheets, only 3% of $56 billion C&I significantly impacted by tariffs, and potential upside from 100% bonus depreciation not in guidance. Khayat said NII guidance rose to 20%-22% with equivalent confidence across rate scenarios, built on stronger C&I growth and better deposit performance, with bonus-depreciation/CapEx upside excluded.
How are you thinking about the pacing of investments and positive operating leverage over the medium term?
Khayat said positive operating leverage is effectively assured this year with a focus on fee-based operating leverage; the company will keep investing at current rates in bankers and technology (half of apps migrated to cloud), using continuous improvement to take out costs while serving clients better.
Can you expand on deposit pricing strategy and the growth-versus-price balance?
Khayat cited a low 70% loan-to-deposit ratio for flexibility, CDs and MMDA promos rolling over, and active decisions to let about $1.4 billion of retail CDs and some high-end commercial deposits roll off without matching competitive offers, while retention in those pockets was better than expected; the company is watching competitor deposit actions closely.
Where are we on resuming share repurchases and the appetite for the second half?
Gorman said Key is at the high end of its marked CET1 target (10%) but prefers to carry a little extra capital for optionality to support clients, invest in people and technology, and pursue tuck-in acquisitions; buybacks will follow a crawl-walk-run approach with modest repurchases in Q3 stepping up later in Q4.
Can the margin reach 3% next year, and is the balance sheet larger or smaller to get there?
Khayat reaffirmed confidence in reaching 3% NIM by end of 2026 at current course and speed, noting Key does not need to grow the balance sheet given capital markets distribution; ~$600 million quarterly residential runoff funds C&I growth, and cash or securities could be reduced, so NII and NIM can improve without a significantly larger balance sheet.
What is your updated appetite for bank M&A and non-bank acquisitions?
Gorman said bank M&A is not high on the priority list given a market of many buyers and few sellers among large banks and the reverse among smaller ones, though he expects a pickup; more important is greater M&A velocity benefiting Key's large middle-market M&A business, expected to pick up after Labor Day. Khayat added non-bank fee-business acquisitions (capital markets, payments) are Key's bread and butter.

More on Keycorp /New/

Reported 2025-07-22 · figures from the Keycorp /New/ Q2 2025 earnings call.

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