The NBA's return to broadcast fueled a 16% year-over-year increase in regular season viewership through mid-February. The CW finished the year as the 10th most-watched ad-supported network and the 2nd fastest-growing network overall, delivering a 19% year-over-year increase in viewership. In Q4, Charter posted sequential quarterly growth in video subscribers, and overall, the data is encouraging to Nexstar's distribution outlook. While we are focused on closing our proposed acquisition of TEGNA, we remain equally disciplined in executing against Nexstar's core business.
Digital is a key growth engine, and we continue to expand our audience reach, including local CTV apps, now live in 108 markets, and broaden advertiser solutions across our owned and third-party inventory. Despite AI search headwinds, digital revenue grew high single digits in 2025 and double digits in our local business. In 2026, we expect digital revenue to surpass our national advertising revenue, an important milestone that strengthens our long-term non-political advertising trajectory. Nexstar delivered fourth quarter net revenue of $1.29 billion, a decline of 13.4% compared to the prior year, primarily reflecting the year-over-year reduction in political advertising, offset by better-than-expected growth in non-political advertising revenues.
Advertising revenue of $549 million decreased $209 million, or 27.6% over the comparable prior year, primarily reflecting $233 million year-over-year decrease in political advertising to $21 million. However, non-political advertising was up 4.5% in the quarter, better than the expectation of a low single-digit decrease we mentioned in our last earnings call. As a reminder, industry advertising forecasts are provided on a gross basis, and Nexstar reports advertising revenue, including political, net of agency commissions. As in previous election years, we expect roughly 20% of our full-year political advertising revenue to be earned in the first half of 2026, with the remaining 80% in the second half.
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA (Nexstar standalone, pre-TEGNA) | FY2026 | $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion (new full-year guidance introduced for the standalone business) |
| Distribution revenue | FY2026 | Low single-digit gross growth, mid single-digit net growth (new, based on 2025 and 2026 contract renewals and improved subscriber attrition) |
| The CW losses | FY2026 | Reduce losses another 30% and achieve profitability in Q4 2026 (reiterated and refined to a Q4 profitability target) |
| Political advertising share | 2025-2026 cycle | Low double-digit share of broadcast political advertising (industry cycle ~$5.28 billion for broadcast) (new; roughly 20% of full-year political expected in H1 and 80% in H2) |
| CapEx | FY2026 | $125 million to $130 million ($30 million to $35 million in Q1) (new) |
| Cash taxes | FY2026 | $315 million to $325 million (new; up about $208 million versus 2025 on higher election-year income) |
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | -13.4% to $1.29 billion | year-over-year reduction in political advertising, partly offset by better-than-expected non-political advertising |
| Distribution revenue | +0.8% to $720 million | increased rates, vMVPD subscriber growth and CW affiliations, offset in part by MVPD subscriber attrition |
| Advertising revenue | -27.6% to $549 million | $233 million decline in political advertising to $21 million, partly offset by 4.5% growth in non-political advertising |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$195 million to $433 million (33.6% margin) | absence of even-year political advertising |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $214 million versus $411 million | lower EBITDA, higher CapEx from a real estate investment and programming payments exceeding amortization |
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEGNA acquisition progress | Announced deal, DOJ second request received, closing expected second half of 2026 | HSR and FCC license transfer applications submitted, all regulatory inquiries answered, closing expected by end of Q2 2026 with divestitures expected to be de minimis | — |
| National ownership cap and deregulation | Awaiting FCC action; refresh-the-record proceeding opened | Presidential and FCC chairman support noted; FCC shot clock would expire June 1; company confident of close by end of Q2 despite investor anxiety | — |
| The CW turnaround | Losses improving ~25% in 2025, profitability in 2026 | 32% cash flow improvement in 2025, targeting another 30% loss reduction and Q4 2026 profitability driven by sports (NASCAR, ACC, college football) | — |
| Digital and expense priorities | Digital growth and cost discipline | Digital and expense rationalization named the top two 2026 priorities; digital to exceed national advertising, further operating expense savings via centralization and AI tools | — |
| AI adoption | Not discussed | AI tools deployed in newsrooms for multi-platform workflow and being rolled out to the sales team for prospecting and operations | — |