Our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with a recording of this call, are available on Republic's website at republicservices.com. Even with persistent headwinds in construction and manufacturing markets, we generated solid earnings growth and margin expansion. Continued investment in our differentiated capabilities positions us well to drive sustainable growth and enhance long-term shareholder value. Our commitment to delivering world-class service continues to support organic growth by reinforcing our position as a trusted partner for our 13 million customers.

Organic revenue growth during the third quarter was driven by strong pricing across the business. Average yield on total revenue was 4%, and average yield on related revenue was 4.9%. Organic volume decreased total revenue by 30 basis points and related revenue by 40 basis points in the quarter. The increase in C&D tons related to hurricane recovery efforts in the Carolinas.

Special waste activity was driven by an increase in event-driven volumes across many of our disposal assets, primarily located in Sun Belt geographies. Organic revenue decline in the environmental solutions business created a 140 basis point headwind to total company revenue this quarter. Given the relatively fixed cost structure of these assets and services, the impact on environmental solutions' EBITDA and margin was more pronounced. While the environmental solutions business was down both sequentially and year-over-year, demand stabilized exiting the third quarter.

What went well
  • Delivered third-quarter revenue growth of 3.3%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 6.1%, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 80 basis points to 32.8%, and adjusted EPS of $1.90.
  • Generated $2.19 billion of adjusted free cash flow on a year-to-date basis, reflecting EBITDA growth and the timing of capital expenditures.
  • Underlying business margin expanded 90 basis points, with recycling and waste adjusted EBITDA margin up 150 basis points year-over-year to 34.3%.
  • Strong pricing across the business with average yield on related revenue of 4.9% and open market pricing of 8.6%; customer retention remained strong at 94% with continued net promoter score improvement.
  • Outsized event-driven landfill activity contributed, including $35 million of hurricane cleanup C&D volume in the Carolinas (landfill C&D volume +45%) and special waste revenue +18%; invested more than $1 billion in acquisitions year-to-date.
What went wrong
  • Environmental Solutions revenue decreased $32 million year-over-year, creating a 140 basis point headwind to total company revenue, driven by softness in manufacturing, lower event-driven landfill/E&P volumes, and fewer emergency response jobs; the decline fell through at nearly a one-to-one revenue-to-EBITDA rate.
  • Organic volume decreased total revenue by 30 basis points and related revenue by 40 basis points, with large container volumes down 3.9% on construction/manufacturing softness and residential down 2.4% on contract shedding.
  • Recycled commodity prices fell to $126 per ton (versus $177 prior year), reducing organic revenue growth by 20 basis points.
  • A labor disruption resulted in a $56 million adjustment recorded in the quarter (including $16 million of revenue credits), tied to localized union contract strikes.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
Full-year 2025 guidanceFY2025No formal update; year-to-date free cash flow $2.19 billion (62% of projected full-year CapEx spent)
Long-term growth algorithmThrough-cycleMid-single-digit revenue growth; EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow growing faster; 30-50 bps of EBITDA margin expansion per year
2026 initial perspectiveFY2026Long-term growth algorithm intact but each metric down a click on tougher comps; ~$100 million of non-repeating 2025 event-driven landfill revenue at 80% incremental margin to overcome; full guidance in February
Price-cost spreadFY2026Cost inflation roughly in line with CPI; yield expected 75-100 bps above that
RNG projectsFY2025Six online year-to-date; total of seven RNG projects expected to commence in 2025
EV fleetFY2025137 vehicles at end of Q3; more than 150 EVs expected by year-end
ES Q4Q4 2025Margin in same zip code, overcoming a tough Q4 2024 comp (high-margin job), building up from there in 2026

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
Revenue growth +3.3% Strong pricing partly offset by ES decline, volume softness, and lower commodity prices
Adjusted EBITDA growth +6.1% Disciplined pricing above cost inflation, strong operational execution, and event-driven landfill volumes
Adjusted EBITDA margin +80 bps to 32.8% Underlying business +90 bps and +40 bps event-driven landfill volumes, offset by -20 bps net fuel, -20 bps commodity prices, -10 bps acquisitions
Adjusted EPS $1.90 Earnings growth and margin expansion
Average yield on related revenue 4.9% Strong pricing including open market 8.6% and restricted 4.8%
Organic volume (related revenue) -40 bps Large container -3.9% and residential -2.4%, offset by landfill C&D +45% (hurricane) and special waste +18%
Recycled commodity price $126/ton vs $177/ton prior year Lower recycled commodity prices; polymer center volumes and West Coast reopening partial offset
ES revenue -$32 million (140 bps headwind) Manufacturing softness, lower event/E&P volumes, fewer emergency response jobs; ES margin 20.3%
Recycling and waste margin +150 bps to 34.3% Pricing above cost inflation, labor productivity from RISE (labor as % of revenue improved 70 bps), and event-driven volumes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
Environmental Solutions weakness/recoveryPricing-volume tradeoff and softnessDown sequentially and year-over-year but demand stabilized exiting Q3 (September better than August, similar in October); pipeline now expanding; found the bottom and rebuilding, with results showing more in 2026
Pricing discipline / price-cost spreadPricing ahead of inflationMaintaining 75-100 bps yield premium over CPI-like cost inflation; ES still viewed as long-term underpriced; progress not linear quarter to quarter
Labor disruptionN/ALocalized union strikes resulted in $56 million Q3 adjustment (incl. $16 million revenue credits); impact believed fully captured with no expected longer-term labor cost impact; about one-third of frontline workforce unionized under local contracts
M&A pipelineStrong and supportiveVery strong, tilted toward recycling and waste; focus on small and medium-sized deals into 2026-2027; acquired a West Coast recycling/reclaimer facility tied to the polymer center value chain
Polymer Centers / plasticsLas Vegas rampIndianapolis commenced commercial production in July; Blue Polymers expected late Q4; demand strong with stable input-output spread; more plastics M&A more likely 2027 and beyond
Digital / RISE productivityN/ARISE driving labor productivity; labor as % of revenue improved 70 bps in the quarter; AI a longer-term lever for routing efficiency
Macro / manufacturing and constructionPersistent softnessManufacturing slow with trade-policy uncertainty and tariff prebuilding; activity slowed in June-August then starting to pick up; no signs of life yet in construction but medium-to-long-term bullish on housing demand
Fleet electrificationN/A137 EVs at end of Q3, 150+ expected by year-end, 32 charging facilities; some loss of federal incentive may slow pace at the margin but customer demand and state/local incentives support continued rollout

Q&A Summary

Does the long-term algorithm hold into 2026 including event-driven volume and commodity headwinds?
Not giving 2026 guidance, but the long-term algorithm (mid-single-digit revenue, EBITDA faster, free cash flow faster) holds. Coming over a tougher comp takes each down a click, predicated on a conservative macro view, and includes overcoming the commodity headwind.
Can you confirm the quarterly cadence of event-driven volumes?
It was $12 million of revenue in Q1, $53 million in Q2, and $36 million in Q3, totaling $100 million.
Why did ES EBITDA fall through almost one-to-one with the revenue decline?
A confluence of slow manufacturing, delayed project work (turnarounds, tank cleanouts being pushed), and very low emergency response activity, plus a unique cost spread: a prior-year $4 million bad debt recovery versus a current-year ~$2 million legal settlement created a ~$6 million swing, roughly a 140 bps year-over-year margin impact.
Was there any residual revenue/cost impact from the labor strikes beyond the $56 million?
No. The $56 million recorded in Q3 (including $16 million of revenue credits) is believed to fully capture the impact; the company considers it done with no expected longer-term labor cost effect.
What drove the improved labor productivity this quarter?
Labor as a percent of revenue improved 70 basis points, a continuation of RISE digital operations platform benefits in the collection business, plus pricing in excess of cost inflation showing up most clearly in labor as a percent of revenue.
What does 'stabilization' in ES mean definitionally?
Both: declines should start lessening and absolute revenues flattening sequentially. September was better than August with October looking similar; the ~$50 million single-job emergency response comp from Q4 2024 (with ~$15 million carrying into Q1 2026) creates tough year-over-year comparisons until Q2 2026.

More on Republic Services, Inc.

Reported 2025-10-30 · figures from the Republic Services, Inc. Q3 2025 earnings call.

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