This morning, we issued our Q3 earnings release, shareholder letter, and trending schedule, and these materials can be found on our website at www.wbd.com. Not only are we in first place, but we are the only film studio to have crossed $4 billion in 2025 box office revenue thus far. Based on our results to date, we expect our studios to meaningfully exceed $2.4 billion in EBITDA this year, and we are making strong progress towards our $3 billion EBITDA goal. Our streaming segment will contribute more than $1.3 billion in EBITDA to our bottom line this year, versus losing $2.5 billion three years ago.
This is further evidence that in its long history, HBO has never delivered a steadier, more consistent pipeline of titles that subscribers circle in their calendars to watch. We're going to begin to see some real benefits from the transition off of the NBA towards a portfolio of other rights that we acquired. That'll be the case if, in fact, HBO Max goes ahead and splits as planned, or if Warner is acquired as Warner. Obviously, if the company is acquired in whole, then they'll have access to everything.
Any updated thoughts on how HBO Max's scale is able to best compete with the other larger SVOD platforms and how that will translate into streaming revenue growth maybe accelerating next year? Our marketing content and product improvements give us a lot of confidence that we can continue to see great penetration and growth as we scale. We have good visibility towards both revenue and the scaling of subscribers in that time. 2026 should be for us the biggest year of growth that we have seen in a long time for HBO Max.
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Studios EBITDA | FY2025 | Meaningfully exceed $2.4 billion |
| Studios EBITDA | Goal | $3 billion, then a real growth rate off that base |
| Streaming segment EBITDA | FY2025 | More than $1.3 billion (vs. -$2.5 billion three years ago) |
| Total streaming subscribers | End of 2026 | More than 150 million |
| U.S. streaming ARPU | Next three quarters / H2 2026 | Pressure for next three quarters, then returning to growth in the back half of 2026 |
| Sports rights cost transition benefit | FY2026 | Hundreds of millions of dollars of benefit from the NBA transition |
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Global box office | Number one domestically, internationally, and globally | Strong original and franchise slate (Superman, Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites, One Battle After Another); only studio over $4 billion in 2025 box office thus far. |
| Streaming segment EBITDA | From -$2.5 billion to +$1.3 billion over three years | Global HBO Max scaling, more than 30 million added subscribers, and quality-driven content differentiation. |
| Linear distribution | ~2% affiliate increases; higher subscriber decline rates | Transition period in 2025 with greater renewal flexibility given across the industry; expected to benefit trajectory near-to-midterm. |
| U.S. streaming ARPU | Pressure | Reset of affiliated-party transaction back to market rates plus ramp of the lower-priced ad-supported SKU. |
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports in streaming (U.S. vs. international) | Sports bundled into HBO Max | Standalone sports app in U.S. (HBO Max stops utilizing streaming rights post-spin), while internationally sports stays on HBO Max or as an add-on | — |
| Library monetization | Heavily external content licensing | Shifted to internal utilization, eliminating roughly $5 billion of intercompany profits parked on the balance sheet that will bleed back into the business | — |
| Streaming standalone apps strategy | Trend toward consolidating apps | CNN and TNT Sports apps as skins/modules on the same platform with limited incremental cost, offering sports as a buy-through | — |
| Franchise management | Disconnect across teams (e.g., consumer products learning of release-date changes from the news) | Dedicated team coordinating franchises (Harry Potter, DC, Game of Thrones, Hanna-Barbera, Looney Tunes) across all monetization forms | — |