Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials if you are joining us through the conference call. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2025, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2025. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter of 2025.

Second quarter revenue increased 11.3% sequentially in NT, as our business was supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. In US dollar terms, revenue increased 17.8% sequentially to $30.1 billion and exceeded our second quarter guidance. Gross margin decreased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.6%, primarily due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from our overseas fabs, partially balanced by higher capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts. Due to operating leverage, operating margin increased 1.1 percentage points sequentially to 49.6%.

Overall, our second quarter EPS was NT 15.36, up 60.7% year over year, and ROE was 34.8%. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 24% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 36% and 14% respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform, HPC increased 14% quarter over quarter to account for 60% of our second quarter revenue.

What went well
  • Second quarter revenue rose to $30.1 billion, up 17.8% sequentially in USD (11.3% in TWD) and above guidance, on robust AI and HPC-related demand for 3nm and 5nm technologies.
  • EPS was TWD 15.36, up 60.7% year over year, and operating margin improved 1.1 points sequentially to 49.6% on operating leverage; ROE was 34.8%.
  • HPC platform grew 14% sequentially to 60% of revenue and DCE grew 30%; management raised full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance to around 30% in USD.
  • Held gross margin at 58.6% (down only 0.2 points) despite unfavorable FX and overseas dilution, cushioned by higher utilization and cost improvement.
  • N2 on track for volume production in H2 2025 with two-year takeouts expected higher than N3 and N5, fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications.
  • Announced a total $165 billion US investment plan (six Arizona fabs, two advanced packaging fabs and an R&D center), with Arizona schedules being sped up on strong AI demand.
What went wrong
  • Gross margin edged down 0.2 points sequentially to 58.6%, and Q3 gross margin is guided down 210 basis points to 56.5% at the midpoint on unfavorable FX and overseas dilution.
  • NT dollar appreciation was a major headwind, cutting Q2 gross margin by about 180 basis points, with a further ~260 basis point hit expected in Q3.
  • Overseas fab dilution exceeded 100 basis points in Q2 as Arizona costs kicked in, and is forecast at 2%-3% per year early stage widening to 3%-4% later.
  • Non-AI end markets showed only a mild recovery, with China rebate-driven demand seen as short-term; tariff and price-sensitive consumer uncertainties persist.
  • Management guided conservatively, with the third quarter implying a possible fourth quarter decline as it factored in tariff and macro uncertainties.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
RevenueQ3 2025$31.8B-$33.0B (+8% QoQ / +38% YoY at midpoint)
Gross marginQ3 202555.5%-57.5% (-210 bps at midpoint)
Operating marginQ3 202545.5%-47.5%
FX assumptionQ3 2025$1 = NT29 (NT appreciates ~6.6% (≈260 bps margin headwind))
Full-year revenue growthFY 2025around 30% (USD) (raised)
Capital budgetFY 2025$38B-$42B (maintained)

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
EPS +60.7% Reached TWD 15.36 on strong 3nm/5nm demand and operating leverage.
Revenue Up 17.8% sequentially in USD to $30.1B on robust AI/HPC demand; explicit YoY not given, though Q3 guided +38% YoY at midpoint.
Operating margin Rose 1.1 points sequentially to 49.6% on operating leverage; YoY not disclosed.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
AI / HPC demandRobust AI/HPC demandGetting stronger and stronger; explosive token growth; sovereign AI risingIncreasing
Foreign exchange headwindNT appreciation cut Q2 margin ~180 bps, ~260 bps expected in Q3; ~40 bps sensitivity per 1% moveWorsening
Overseas expansion / dilutionOverseas dilution beginning$165B US plan (6 fabs); Arizona dilution >100 bps in Q2, 2%-3% early to 3%-4% later; ~30% of 2nm+ capacity in ArizonaExpanding
N2 / A16 / A14 roadmapN2 volume production H2 2025 (ramp similar to N3, takeouts above N3/N5); N2P and A16 H2 2026; A14 in 2028 with SPR in 2029Advancing
Gross margin / earning valueHeld 58.6% despite FX; long-term 53%+ 'and higher' achievable via the six profitability factorsStable
Non-AI recovery / tariffsMild non-AI recoveryMild non-AI recovery; China rebates short-term; prudent on tariff and price-sensitive risksMixed

Q&A Summary

How is data center AI and CoWoS demand trending, and why the implied Q4 decline?
AI demand is getting stronger and TSMC is working to narrow the CoWoS gap (not 'balance'); on-device AI die size is up 5%-10% with mild unit growth; the implied Q4 softness reflects conservative planning around tariff and macro uncertainties, not weaker customer signals.
Can 2026 pricing reflect TSMC's value and offset the FX and overseas cost headwinds?
Management is working on it and is confident a 53% and higher gross margin remains achievable, leaning on pricing plus the other profitability factors.
Does H20 shipping to China raise the mid-40% AI accelerator CAGR?
It is positive news for customers and TSMC, but too early to raise the forecast; management will revisit in another quarter.
What N2 revenue contribution and ramp profile should we expect for 2026?
The N2 ramp profile is similar to N3 (constrained by fab build-out and capacity), but revenue contribution will be bigger because N2 is priced higher than N3, with both smartphone and HPC ramping.
How tight are N5 and N3, and can TSMC earn more value there?
N3 is even tighter than N5, and tightness continues for a couple of years; TSMC is converting N7 to support N5 and N5 to N3 using ~85%-90% common tools, and all N7-and-below leading edge is very tight.
Can pricing offset structural FX/overseas costs, and how much AI benefit in the fabs?
Price is only one of six profitability factors; TSMC leans on the others to hold margins, and internal AI use is meaningful, with each 1% productivity gain worth about $1 billion given the company's scale.
Why keep 2025 CapEx unchanged despite stronger demand, and what about 2026-2027?
CapEx is set for future-year opportunities and reflects macro caution and construction constraints; it is too early to guide future years, but for a company this size CapEx is unlikely to drop significantly, implying likely higher spend ahead.

More on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

Reported 2025-07-17 · figures from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Q2 2025 earnings call.

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